The 18 Team NBA Lottery

NBA Lottery Expansion

The NBA's new solution to stop tanking is set to be voted on tomorrow. But there's a huge problem.

It would actually make it worse. Here's what's on the table...

In response to the most embarrassing stretch of tanking in league history, the NBA wants to expand the lottery from 14 teams to 18 teams, meaning only the top 6 seeds in each conference would be on the outside.

Under the new potential format, the bottom 10 records would all receive an equal 8% shot at the #1 pick, while the remaining lottery teams would all have an equal 2.5% chance.

If at least 23 owners vote in favor, the expanded lottery would go into effect next season.

Sounds reasonable on the surface, but none of this actually addresses the root issue. In fact, it's very possible that it only makes things worse.

The root issue is simple…

Losing is an extremely valuable strategy in a sport where competition is supposed to be paramount.

To make matters worse, fining owners doesn't even come close to working. The Jazz were fined $500K this year for tanking. To put that in perspective, here's what Brian Windhorst said on the Hoop Collective Pod:

"I had an executive tell me the #1 pick this year is worth $100 million. That if you gave the opportunity to buy that pick, teams would pay $100 million for it."

$500K is a rounding error to these owners. You could fine a team $500K every single week of the season and it still wouldn't matter. The incentive to lose is too strong.

All an 18 team lottery does is pave the way for 4 more teams to prioritize tanking.

Let me be very clear here. If losing games is even remotely tied to receiving a better pick, teams will do it…because they are not dumb.

Here's the most concerning part here...

There have been 342 teams seeded 4th, 5th, or 6th since 1970. Only ONE of them went on to win the title. The 94/95 Rockets.

With the expanded lottery, these teams are now incentivized to drop back into the play-in tournament where they would have a shot at the #1 pick.

Why fight for a 4 seed when you can fall to 7 and enter the lottery?

Why grind through 82 games trying to earn home court advantage when you could rest your stars down the stretch, make the playoffs and STILL be in the running for a franchise altering prospect?

As I've said before, the only way to truly address tanking is to eliminate the incentive entirely.

Either give all 30 teams equal odds for the #1 pick, or get rid of the draft entirely and allow prospects to be treated as free agents.

Half measures will never fix this and make no mistake about it…tomorrow's vote is a half measure.

- FMS

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